By Patricia Wilson


Overall, optimism is growing in the advertising industry. However, not all media are created equal in projections for U.S. advertising spending in 2010 and beyond. It remains a difficult time for print, while television seems to be holding its own. Digital advertising continues to grow, and may have even benefited from the recession.


(See related blog: Advertising Spending Looks Up in 2010.)


“The rise of the Internet continued uninterrupted during the downturn — in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” said ZenithOptimedia, in a press release forecasting ad spending for 2010 and beyond.


Television suffered less than other media, ZenithOptimedia noted, while “newspapers and magazines have clearly suffered the most from the downturn.”

Ad Predictions by Media Type

ZenithOptimedia predicts the following for 2010 global advertising spending by media:

• TV: Up 4.36 percent with 40.3 percent market share.
• Newspapers: Down 3.8 percent with 21.7 percent market share.
• Internet: Up 12.9 percent with 13.9 percent market share.
• Magazines: Down 4.4 percent with 9.6 percent market share.
• Radio: Down 0.5 percent with 7.5 percent market share.
• Outdoor: Up 1.72 percent with 6.5 percent market share.
• Cinema: Up 3.07 percent with 0.5 percent market share.

Communications firm Carat, as reported by MarketingProfs, expects the United States — in specific — to follow a similar ad-spending pattern:

• TV: Up 4 percent.
• Newspapers: Down 8.3 percent
• Online: Up 10 percent.
• Radio: Up 2.5 percent.
• Magazines: Down 5 percent.

Last, but not least, in its April revised forecast (via MediaBuyerPlanner), MAGNA raised its 2010 expectations, predicting a 3 percent rise in U.S. ad spending, including revenues from the Olympics and spending on elections, to 3 percent. This is MAGNA’s second correction of 2010, including a January forecast predicting flat growth for U.S. ad spending.


MAGNA’s U.S. outlook is bullish for the Internet and TV, but bearish for print:

• Search: Up 16.8 percent.
• Local TV: Up 16.2 percent.
• Internet: Up 12.8 percent.
• National TV: Up 10.2 percent.
• Magazines: Down 6.9 percent.
• Local Newspapers: Down 10 percent.
• National Newspapers: Down 11 percent.

Industry revenues will rise from $40.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009 to $41.3 billion during the first quarter of 2010, according to a MAGNA press release.


“Among the various sectors, television remains the largest advertising platform in the United States,” MAGNA said. “The $56.0 billion dollar segment will grow by 9.8% during 2010, slightly higher than our prior 8.5% expectation. This growth will erase 2009’s losses and return the sector to levels observed between 2006 and 2008.”

What Media Executives are Saying about the Future

Overall, ad spending is expected to grow an average of 3 percent in 2010, while interactive ad spending is expected to grow 10 percent, according to an AdMedia Partners online survey of global senior business executives in advertising, marketing services, digital marketing and related industries.


The majority of media executives (65 percent) said that online revenue will account for more than 50 percent of total revenue within the next five years at business-to-business publications. For newspapers, 44 percent said online revenue will outstrip print within five years and 38 percent said that it is likely to take 5-10 years.


Mobile and social media marketing are also projected to grow.


“These evolving media and service offerings are considered to be important growth opportunities increasingly requested by content owners and advertisers,” according to the AdMedia Partners report. “Just like the early days of the Internet, media companies are experimenting with various business models to monetize these opportunities.”


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


The iPad. Promoted tweets. Interactive ads. Which hot new trends have merit for advertising? Getting to the soul of marketing. These were just some of the main topics covered at the 2010 Ad Age Digital Conference held April 13 and 14 in New York.


BrandCottage was on hand at the conference. Here are some of the event’s highlights:

Best speaker: Jim Farley, group vice president of global marketing at Ford Motor Co.


Farley, who is the cousin of the late comedian, Chris Farley, explained that Ford is riding a wave of advertising success based on the “democratization of marketing.” In both digital and traditional marketing, he explained, Ford puts the brand in the hands of real consumers. “That’s what digital has shown us: how to earn credibility among consumers,” he said.


One out of every four advertising dollars spent by Ford goes to digital, including social media. “Social media has shown the importance of being authentic, even in traditional media,” Farley noted.


Few could argue with Farley’s authenticity. At 16, he purchased his dream car, a Ford Mustang. “To be good at marketing, you have to understand the soul of what you’re selling,” he said.


See Ford’s Jim Farley Says Recession Was a Blessing for Digital in Advertising Age for full story.


Biggest news: Twitter COO Dick Costolo announced promoted tweets. It was refreshing to hear from Costolo that consumers and advertisers have a “wait and see what happens” attitude about the acceptance of promoted tweets and that Twitter was going to move ahead carefully (testing of promoted tweets began during the conference).


“We wanted to do something that just enhances the conversation that companies are already having with their customers on Twitter,” Costolo said. Of course, Twitter also needs to build a revenue model to capitalize on the company’s reported 50 million daily tweets — a fact not lost on attendees.


Twitter’s initial version of promoted tweets — in the form of keyword ads — will appear in search results. Later the ads will appear in user feeds on Twitter and on third-party clients such as TweetDeck, TwitterBerry and Tweetie, which Twitter recently acquired.


In short, each ad is a tweet that will appear at the top of a search. The promotional tweet can be re-tweeted, just as a regular tweet is passed around today. Costolo said ads would be available on a CPM-basis.


See Chats, Stats and Secrets about Twitter in Advertising Age for more information.


Biggest antagonist: Yahoo! Scientist Duncan Watts, who questioned the value of tweets.


Watts reported that, based on his research, a tweet’s average influence score is 0.28 people. “Most of them will send tweets and no one else re-tweets,” he said. “A lot of times, not that many people are listening on Twitter.”


However, Watts did not discount the value of thousands or millions of many-to-many connections. In fact, he said that advertisers would get more value from a lot of small influencers than from a big influencer such as Kim Kardashian, at $10,000 per tweet.


“If you recruit enough people who, on average, influence just one other person, you could get a much better return on investment,” he said.


Best quote: “I’ve seen the future and it’s covered in greasy fingerprints,” said Simon Dumenco, Ad Age’s Media Guy.


Dumenco gave a lighthearted speech on the transformational power of the iPad, for which he believes fingerprints are about the only down side of the device. Still, he added, publishers have only begun to scratch the surface of the iPad’s potential. “So far, the iPad’s killer app is demo-ing the iPad,” said Dumenco, quoting technologist Ben Rosen.


Cautious optimism: Digital is here to stay and marketers are getting on board in big ways. However, most CMOs and brand marketers say they are not hopping on the next shinny thing just to be first. “We never hop on the next hot thing, but the iPad made a lot of sense for us,” said Vivian Schiller, president and CEO of NPR.


For companies such as Dell, however, it’s full speed ahead. “Dell is a total digital company and it’s part of our corporate DNA,” said Dell CMO Erin Nelson. On Twitter, Nelson said the social media platform “has collapsed our customer feedback cycle and dramatically improved product development.”


In conclusion: Understanding how consumers use various media, how they react with online ads and why they join social networks in the first place — these are all important strategy questions for branders. We’ve moved way past mere reach and frequency.


What is clear is that (1) no single media owns the consumer and (2) the consumer now has a lot of influence. Smart marketers understand that consumers now seek authentic and trustworthy brands — new realities thanks to digital and social media.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


It’s about time! This month, five major magazine heavyweights announced they will join forces to collectively “promote the vitality of magazines as a medium.” The Power of Print campaign — targeting advertisers, media buyers and other industry marketing influencers — will roll out in April.


The five magazine companies — Condé Nast, Hearst Magazines, Meredith Corporation, Time Inc. and Wenner Media — claim this is “one of the largest print advertising campaigns ever created” in support of magazine advertising.


With the support of the Magazine Publishers of America (MPA), the campaign is scheduled for seven months, will include nearly 100 titles (both print and online) for a combined reach of 112 million readers each month.


One of my favorite advertising headlines from the campaign:“Will the Internet Kill Magazines? Did Instant Coffee Kill Coffee?”


As a 20-year veteran of media planning, I can tell you that print still matters in the advertising mix. Digital is the new kid in town and it’s gotten a fair amount of advertising attention over the last couple of years. However, finally, publishers and advertisers see a clear reader pattern — or lack of pattern, if you will — that’s emerging. Readers want choice. That includes print, digital, mobile, iPad and whatever else may come down the pike.

The benefits of magazine print: the intrinsic value of the glossy format, quality design, long-form journalism, beautiful photography and highly engaged readers.

Citing third-party data, the Magazine Publishers of America reports a healthy consumer outlook for magazines, compared to other media. Tops on its  highlight list is the fact that magazine readership has increased over the last five years. Yes, there has been a shift in readership and advertising to online. Despite the “Magazines Hemorrhage Cash” strories, more than 90 percent of Americans say they read magazines.

Print Versus Online Advertising

Magazine print continues to provide many advertising strengths: the intrinsic value of the glossy format, quality design, long-form journalism, beautiful photography and highly engaged readers. Of course, digital has its own set of intrinsic strengths: e-commerce, clickability, interactivity and trackability — to name a few.


Apple, for example, one of the most iconic brands in the world, fully understands the power of print. Even though Apple, itself, is a digital company. Magazines, for Apple, remain a cornerstone for their branding initiatives and product launches. This is true for many other top brands, as well.

Multimedia Integration

The lesson here, for marketers, is to look beyond the hype of digital to achieve desired results. All media can be valuable. Not all media can achieve all goals. Seasoned marketers understand that. In today’s multimedia world, integrated plans often work best — allowing advertisers to account for different readership styles, preferences and needs for various degrees of engagement levels.


Kudos to the magazine publishers for standing up for print and putting the facts out there. Magazine publishers, of course, have been wise to address the digital shift: adding multi-platform options, social engagement and integration strategies to the mix. But this is no reason to throw magazine print properties under the bus.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.