By Patricia Wilson


Finally, some good news on the advertising front. Recent forecasts indicate that advertising spending is climbing out of the recession hole.


(See related blog: Advertising’s Recovery: Not all Media Created Equal)


ZenithOptimedia recently upgraded its forecast for global ad growth in 2010 from 0.9 percent (estimated December 2009) to 2.2 percent (April 2010), the company said in a press release. After 18 months of consecutive downgrades, this is the global media services agency’s second upgrade in a row.


“Confidence in the global economic recovery, while tentative, continues to grow, and this improvement has been apparent in ad markets across the world,” ZenithOptimedia said. “Ad expenditure is accelerating in bullish developing markets, while in the developed world the downturn is coming to an end more quickly than expected.”

2010 Advertising Forecast: Partly Sunny

It’s a turnaround happily predicted by others in the advertising industry. Carat, as recently reported by the Guardian, also adjusted its outlook, predicting advertising to grow 2.9 percent this year, up from the 1 percent the company forecasted in October 2009.


Likewise, the results of a new AdMedia Partners survey indicates that worldwide senior business executives in the media business expect ad spending to grow 3 percent in 2010.


Finally, in MAGNA’s recent update, the company predicted that, excluding political and Olympic advertising on TV, “on a normalized bases the U.S. advertising economy will grow by 1.6 percent during 2010, ahead of our prior forecast of flat year-to-year growth.”


MAGNA’s long-term forecast is also rosier: “As expectations for the broader economy have improved over an extended time-frame as well, we are increasing our long-term forecasts, and now expect growth to average 3.5 percent between 2010 and 2015, up from +2.3 percent previously.”

Digital Advertising Leads the Charge

While traditional advertising media suffered the most from the global recession, digital advertising continued to grow and, “in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” according to ZenithOptimedia.


This was confirmed at a recent Ad Age Digital Conference in New York where corporate speakers agreed they were now spending a bigger portion of the advertising pie — 20 to 25 percent — on digital advertising.


“We expect 10.7 percent growth in online advertising revenues, led by 17.0 percent growth in paid search,” MAGNA said. “Much of this growth will be due to the increasing ease with which many advertisers — especially those who are endemic to the Internet as well as small and mid-sized companies — can accomplish their goals through digital media.”


In the AdMedia Partners online survey, more than three-fourths of media executives said they are considering the expansion of online services or are entering into new online marketing businesses, including:

• Social media marketing (55 percent).
• Mobile marketing (48 percent).
• Search marketing (41 percent).
• CRM/Analytics (41 percent).
• E-mail marketing (35 percent).

Media Spending Considerations

In the past, marketers have typically planned year-over-year advertising increases. However, the 2009 recession has changed that dramatically, with most brands putting cost-cutting measures into place. The forecasts mentioned above indicate that spending will rise again in 2010, albeit cautiously. And with increased demand on media inventory, we can expect to see increases in media pricing — dramatic increases, in some cases.


BrandCottage will continue to report on these trends as we move through 2010.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.