By Patricia Wilson


Overall, optimism is growing in the advertising industry. However, not all media are created equal in projections for U.S. advertising spending in 2010 and beyond. It remains a difficult time for print, while television seems to be holding its own. Digital advertising continues to grow, and may have even benefited from the recession.


(See related blog: Advertising Spending Looks Up in 2010.)


“The rise of the Internet continued uninterrupted during the downturn — in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” said ZenithOptimedia, in a press release forecasting ad spending for 2010 and beyond.


Television suffered less than other media, ZenithOptimedia noted, while “newspapers and magazines have clearly suffered the most from the downturn.”

Ad Predictions by Media Type

ZenithOptimedia predicts the following for 2010 global advertising spending by media:

• TV: Up 4.36 percent with 40.3 percent market share.
• Newspapers: Down 3.8 percent with 21.7 percent market share.
• Internet: Up 12.9 percent with 13.9 percent market share.
• Magazines: Down 4.4 percent with 9.6 percent market share.
• Radio: Down 0.5 percent with 7.5 percent market share.
• Outdoor: Up 1.72 percent with 6.5 percent market share.
• Cinema: Up 3.07 percent with 0.5 percent market share.

Communications firm Carat, as reported by MarketingProfs, expects the United States — in specific — to follow a similar ad-spending pattern:

• TV: Up 4 percent.
• Newspapers: Down 8.3 percent
• Online: Up 10 percent.
• Radio: Up 2.5 percent.
• Magazines: Down 5 percent.

Last, but not least, in its April revised forecast (via MediaBuyerPlanner), MAGNA raised its 2010 expectations, predicting a 3 percent rise in U.S. ad spending, including revenues from the Olympics and spending on elections, to 3 percent. This is MAGNA’s second correction of 2010, including a January forecast predicting flat growth for U.S. ad spending.


MAGNA’s U.S. outlook is bullish for the Internet and TV, but bearish for print:

• Search: Up 16.8 percent.
• Local TV: Up 16.2 percent.
• Internet: Up 12.8 percent.
• National TV: Up 10.2 percent.
• Magazines: Down 6.9 percent.
• Local Newspapers: Down 10 percent.
• National Newspapers: Down 11 percent.

Industry revenues will rise from $40.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009 to $41.3 billion during the first quarter of 2010, according to a MAGNA press release.


“Among the various sectors, television remains the largest advertising platform in the United States,” MAGNA said. “The $56.0 billion dollar segment will grow by 9.8% during 2010, slightly higher than our prior 8.5% expectation. This growth will erase 2009’s losses and return the sector to levels observed between 2006 and 2008.”

What Media Executives are Saying about the Future

Overall, ad spending is expected to grow an average of 3 percent in 2010, while interactive ad spending is expected to grow 10 percent, according to an AdMedia Partners online survey of global senior business executives in advertising, marketing services, digital marketing and related industries.


The majority of media executives (65 percent) said that online revenue will account for more than 50 percent of total revenue within the next five years at business-to-business publications. For newspapers, 44 percent said online revenue will outstrip print within five years and 38 percent said that it is likely to take 5-10 years.


Mobile and social media marketing are also projected to grow.


“These evolving media and service offerings are considered to be important growth opportunities increasingly requested by content owners and advertisers,” according to the AdMedia Partners report. “Just like the early days of the Internet, media companies are experimenting with various business models to monetize these opportunities.”


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


Finally, some good news on the advertising front. Recent forecasts indicate that advertising spending is climbing out of the recession hole.


(See related blog: Advertising’s Recovery: Not all Media Created Equal)


ZenithOptimedia recently upgraded its forecast for global ad growth in 2010 from 0.9 percent (estimated December 2009) to 2.2 percent (April 2010), the company said in a press release. After 18 months of consecutive downgrades, this is the global media services agency’s second upgrade in a row.


“Confidence in the global economic recovery, while tentative, continues to grow, and this improvement has been apparent in ad markets across the world,” ZenithOptimedia said. “Ad expenditure is accelerating in bullish developing markets, while in the developed world the downturn is coming to an end more quickly than expected.”

2010 Advertising Forecast: Partly Sunny

It’s a turnaround happily predicted by others in the advertising industry. Carat, as recently reported by the Guardian, also adjusted its outlook, predicting advertising to grow 2.9 percent this year, up from the 1 percent the company forecasted in October 2009.


Likewise, the results of a new AdMedia Partners survey indicates that worldwide senior business executives in the media business expect ad spending to grow 3 percent in 2010.


Finally, in MAGNA’s recent update, the company predicted that, excluding political and Olympic advertising on TV, “on a normalized bases the U.S. advertising economy will grow by 1.6 percent during 2010, ahead of our prior forecast of flat year-to-year growth.”


MAGNA’s long-term forecast is also rosier: “As expectations for the broader economy have improved over an extended time-frame as well, we are increasing our long-term forecasts, and now expect growth to average 3.5 percent between 2010 and 2015, up from +2.3 percent previously.”

Digital Advertising Leads the Charge

While traditional advertising media suffered the most from the global recession, digital advertising continued to grow and, “in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” according to ZenithOptimedia.


This was confirmed at a recent Ad Age Digital Conference in New York where corporate speakers agreed they were now spending a bigger portion of the advertising pie — 20 to 25 percent — on digital advertising.


“We expect 10.7 percent growth in online advertising revenues, led by 17.0 percent growth in paid search,” MAGNA said. “Much of this growth will be due to the increasing ease with which many advertisers — especially those who are endemic to the Internet as well as small and mid-sized companies — can accomplish their goals through digital media.”


In the AdMedia Partners online survey, more than three-fourths of media executives said they are considering the expansion of online services or are entering into new online marketing businesses, including:

• Social media marketing (55 percent).
• Mobile marketing (48 percent).
• Search marketing (41 percent).
• CRM/Analytics (41 percent).
• E-mail marketing (35 percent).

Media Spending Considerations

In the past, marketers have typically planned year-over-year advertising increases. However, the 2009 recession has changed that dramatically, with most brands putting cost-cutting measures into place. The forecasts mentioned above indicate that spending will rise again in 2010, albeit cautiously. And with increased demand on media inventory, we can expect to see increases in media pricing — dramatic increases, in some cases.


BrandCottage will continue to report on these trends as we move through 2010.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


The iPad. Promoted tweets. Interactive ads. Which hot new trends have merit for advertising? Getting to the soul of marketing. These were just some of the main topics covered at the 2010 Ad Age Digital Conference held April 13 and 14 in New York.


BrandCottage was on hand at the conference. Here are some of the event’s highlights:

Best speaker: Jim Farley, group vice president of global marketing at Ford Motor Co.


Farley, who is the cousin of the late comedian, Chris Farley, explained that Ford is riding a wave of advertising success based on the “democratization of marketing.” In both digital and traditional marketing, he explained, Ford puts the brand in the hands of real consumers. “That’s what digital has shown us: how to earn credibility among consumers,” he said.


One out of every four advertising dollars spent by Ford goes to digital, including social media. “Social media has shown the importance of being authentic, even in traditional media,” Farley noted.


Few could argue with Farley’s authenticity. At 16, he purchased his dream car, a Ford Mustang. “To be good at marketing, you have to understand the soul of what you’re selling,” he said.


See Ford’s Jim Farley Says Recession Was a Blessing for Digital in Advertising Age for full story.


Biggest news: Twitter COO Dick Costolo announced promoted tweets. It was refreshing to hear from Costolo that consumers and advertisers have a “wait and see what happens” attitude about the acceptance of promoted tweets and that Twitter was going to move ahead carefully (testing of promoted tweets began during the conference).


“We wanted to do something that just enhances the conversation that companies are already having with their customers on Twitter,” Costolo said. Of course, Twitter also needs to build a revenue model to capitalize on the company’s reported 50 million daily tweets — a fact not lost on attendees.


Twitter’s initial version of promoted tweets — in the form of keyword ads — will appear in search results. Later the ads will appear in user feeds on Twitter and on third-party clients such as TweetDeck, TwitterBerry and Tweetie, which Twitter recently acquired.


In short, each ad is a tweet that will appear at the top of a search. The promotional tweet can be re-tweeted, just as a regular tweet is passed around today. Costolo said ads would be available on a CPM-basis.


See Chats, Stats and Secrets about Twitter in Advertising Age for more information.


Biggest antagonist: Yahoo! Scientist Duncan Watts, who questioned the value of tweets.


Watts reported that, based on his research, a tweet’s average influence score is 0.28 people. “Most of them will send tweets and no one else re-tweets,” he said. “A lot of times, not that many people are listening on Twitter.”


However, Watts did not discount the value of thousands or millions of many-to-many connections. In fact, he said that advertisers would get more value from a lot of small influencers than from a big influencer such as Kim Kardashian, at $10,000 per tweet.


“If you recruit enough people who, on average, influence just one other person, you could get a much better return on investment,” he said.


Best quote: “I’ve seen the future and it’s covered in greasy fingerprints,” said Simon Dumenco, Ad Age’s Media Guy.


Dumenco gave a lighthearted speech on the transformational power of the iPad, for which he believes fingerprints are about the only down side of the device. Still, he added, publishers have only begun to scratch the surface of the iPad’s potential. “So far, the iPad’s killer app is demo-ing the iPad,” said Dumenco, quoting technologist Ben Rosen.


Cautious optimism: Digital is here to stay and marketers are getting on board in big ways. However, most CMOs and brand marketers say they are not hopping on the next shinny thing just to be first. “We never hop on the next hot thing, but the iPad made a lot of sense for us,” said Vivian Schiller, president and CEO of NPR.


For companies such as Dell, however, it’s full speed ahead. “Dell is a total digital company and it’s part of our corporate DNA,” said Dell CMO Erin Nelson. On Twitter, Nelson said the social media platform “has collapsed our customer feedback cycle and dramatically improved product development.”


In conclusion: Understanding how consumers use various media, how they react with online ads and why they join social networks in the first place — these are all important strategy questions for branders. We’ve moved way past mere reach and frequency.


What is clear is that (1) no single media owns the consumer and (2) the consumer now has a lot of influence. Smart marketers understand that consumers now seek authentic and trustworthy brands — new realities thanks to digital and social media.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Barry Lawrence


When launching a social media engagement strategy, to pull consumers into brands, it’s important that companies begin to appreciate the many styles, tolerances and expectations that consumers bring to social networking. If your social media program is stuck in the mud, it may be that you are turning some customers away with a one-size-fits-all engagement strategy.


To help marketers account for different social media behaviors, Forrester Research created a Social Technographics®, classification system that places consumers into six overlapping levels of preferred participation (see Forrester’s Groundswell site and book for more details — highly recommended by BrandCottage). This week, Forrester announced a seventh rung, the Conversationalists, to account for “the very active communication style that has arisen recently within social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook,” said Forrester Analyst Emily Riley in her blog post, A New Rung on the Social Technographics Ladder.


To clarify, the bottom of the ladder represents the most passive level of social media participation; at the top of the ladder, we find the Creators, the most active social media participants. With each brand and social media program, marketers are wise to account for the predominate style or, more likely, styles of their target consumers.


Here’s how consumer social media styles break down, from top to bottom in terms of levels of engagement, according to data from the groundswell blog (note that Forrester has placed Conversationalists between Creators and Critics.:

• Creators, 24 percent of adults.
• Conversationalists, 33 percent.
• Critics, 37 percent.
• Collectors, 20 percent.
• Joiners, 59 percent.
• Spectators, 70 percent.
• Inactives, 17 percent.

In practice with our clients, rather than getting too hung up in the profile percentages of a company’s target consumers, BrandCottage thinks it’s best to account for all the styles in creating a well-rounded social media program. The goal of any social media program, when done correctly, should be to move consumers as far up the engagement ladder as possible, while still leaving room for spectators and joiners to get value from their social media interactions with your brand.


However, we most certainly need to account for the growing number of Conversationalists on sites such as Twitter and Facebook.


“Conversationalists intrigue me,” said Josh Bernoff in the groundswell blog. (Bernoff, along with Forrester’s Charlene Li, are the authors of Groundswell. ” They’re 56 percent female, more than any other group in the ladder. While they’re among the youngest of the groups, 70 percent are still 30 and up.”


“By following Conversationalists, you get free consumer insights,” noted Riley in her blog. “Conversationalists are your customers and they are talking about you. Listen to them.”


Indeed. Listen and begin to engage with your consumers. Participation on the high end of the ladder will continue to grow. If you haven’t already, now is the time to build a solid social media foundation.


Related BrandCottage posts: Why I’m a Power Tweeter on Twitter and The Essential 7 Ps of Social Media Relations. Also, see PR Squared’s blog post on Forrester’s Social Technographics Ladder.


Barry Lawrence is a BrandCottage partner in charge of public relations and social media relations.

By Patricia Wilson


Friends, family and even business clients ask me all the time:


“What in the heck do you get out of all your tweeting and twittering?”


I’ll admit, I am addicted to my @BrandCottage Twitter account. And as the head honcho of BrandCottage, I believe it has been time well spent.


Many people GET IT. Others still don’t see what all the Twitter fuss is about. For the latter, I explain that you have to really use Twitter — and use it a lot — to understand its full value.


Here are the Twitter business benefits I see:

• I’m more informed. My fellow Twitterers provide me with updates, knowledge and thought leadership about my field. I am educated daily about emerging media technologies, shifting consumer trends, best brand practices, marketing challenges, new social media ideas and other trends.




• I’m more networked. For me, Twitter is by far the furthest reaching networking tool I have seen in my 20+ years as a professional. Next to personal relationships, it’s the single most important new tool for maintaining business relationships.




• I’m never out of the buzz loop. Twitter search  and its trending topics tools make it easy and fast to view the hot buzz of the day — both within my industry and through the World Wide Web. This helps our agency in the work we do for our clients, giving us the ability to take advantage of new branding or social relations opportunities.




• I’m building a voice and brand personality. The added benefit here is that BrandCottage can engage its clients and future customers by sharing valuable information with them. In addition, these conversations have become two-way and far reaching.




• I’m building trust with influencers. We’ve seen our partnerships and status in the media industry grow immeasurably with Twitter. It’s helping us find new opportunities and new ways to help each other — benefits that we return to our clients as added services and improved return on investment.

If you want to see what all the Twitter fuss is about, don’t just dip your toe in the water. Dive in, completely.


See you @BrandCottage.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.