By Patricia Wilson, founder of BrandCottage

Advertising is dead. Long live advertising!


Or so the chant continues as advertising spending continues its march from economic doldrums and adjusts to changes due to technological innovations and shifting consumer media habits.

Interpublic Group’s Magna Global recently lowered its 2012 worldwide ad revenue projections, but still predicts total ad revenues to be up 3.7 percent — nearly $153 billion — in the United States. Similarly, ZenithOptimedia forecasts a 3.6 percent growth expenditure for the United States in 2012, pointing to continued newspaper declines and flat magazine advertising,  but increased market share for Internet advertising.


Biggest gainers: digital and mobile ads aimed at driving new revenue from a growing appetite for tablet computers that come in all shapes and sizes, from the innovation-leading Apple iPad to the low-cost Amazon Kindle Fire (see PCMag’s tablet review). However, even within the television and digital ad spaces, changing priorities in ad spending look like the norm for 2012.


(See related BrandCottage blogs: Advertising’s Recovery: Not all Media Created Equal and Advertising Spending Looks Up in 2010.)

TV Advertising Maintains Market Share

Holding its own in the battle for advertising dollars: television.


Cable “cord cutting” is expected to continue in the U.S. at an annual rate of 500,000 subscribers for the next few years,” said Vincent Letang,the executive vice president and director of global forecasting at Interpublic Group’s Magna Global (reported by MediaDailyNews). But dollars won’t be lost as much as they are redirected to other video channels and platforms.

Print Down But Not Out

A poor performance in the second half of last year resulted in an 3.1 percent decline in magazine ad pages for 2011 compared with 2010, according to a report recently issued by the Publishers Information Bureau (PIB). Category declines included food and food products, home furnishings and supplies, public transportation, hotels and resorts and direct response companies.


There are, however, some “pockets of strength” in the apparel, cosmetics and financial sectors. In fact, according to Mediafinder.com, 239 new magazines launched in 2011, up 24 percent from 193 new launches in 2010 (see MediaDailyNews). Business-to-business magazines almost doubled, from 34 new titles in 2010 to 62 last year.

Innovation Drives Advertising Disruption

Three emerging trends are the direct result of disruptive technologies, according to a 2012 market survey conducted by AdMedia Partners:

• The distribution of content across trans-media channels.
• The demand for real-time, more personalized content across multiple devices.
• Exponential growth in the ability to collect, manage, analyze and execute on marketing data.

“As a consequence, digital media and marketing services are experiencing more rapid growth than both the overall economy and marketing spending as a whole,” according to the AdMedia report.


The Internet is and will continue to be the fastest-growing medium, according to ZenithOptimedia. Major Internet advertising trends, worldwide:

• Display is growing the fastest, at 18.9 percent a year, and is driven mainly by online video and social media.
• Paid search is growing more than 15 percent a year, but growth is “slightly restrained by the shift in search behavior from desktop to mobile devices, where costs are currently lower.”
• Google increased its global share of the Internet market from 34.9 percent in 2006 to 44.1 percent in 2010.
• Facebook has overtaken AOL with a market share of 3.1 percent in 2010.

Digital advertising has quickly advanced from a fringe buy to an imperative part of companies’ media mix,” notes Jenna Levy in the Marketing Conversation blog.


Even more amazing, Forrester Research predicts that U.S. advertisers will spend $77 billion on interactive marketing in 2016 (thanks DailyDOOH).


That’s the amount spent on television today!

Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


Where have all the news junkies gone or, more appropriately, where are they going? And what does the migration from print to digital — if its exists — mean for marketers and the advertising agencies that want to reach news consumers?


Consider these transformational changes in news consumption:

• Print newspaper circulation continues to decline. The Audit Bureau of Circulations, in October, found that 379 daily newspapers reported an average 10.6 percent drop in circulation (see The New York Times story).
• Purchases of U.S. magazines at news stands and other retail outlets, according to the Audit Bureau of Circulations, fell 9 percent in the second half of 2009, while subscriptions fell 1.1 percent in the years second half (see msnbc.com story).
• 28 percent of newspaper executives responding to a recent survey by the Associated Press Managing Editors, a group of newspaper executives, said their publications are considering online fees (see USATODAY.com story).
• According to a survey by Editor and Publisher (itself, a magazine that is shutting down), 55 percent of readers said they would be very or extremely unlikely to pay for online newspaper or magazine content (see News Consumer story).
• At the same time, 81.5 percent of the online paid subscribers of The Wall Street Journal and Consumer Reports consider them to be good, very good or excellent value, according to the Editor and Publisher study.
• To really complicate matters, 26 percent of Americans get news on their mobile phones, according to a new Pew Research Center study, Understanding the Participatory News Consumer.

For advertisers and marketers who are wondering where to find their target consumers in this jungle of media usage patterns, it’s time to remember:

1. All good marketing starts with clear objectives.
2. Every media can accomplish something….and most often not the same objectives.

Online news is fast, it’s searchable and it saves valuable time. But online news is also highly fragmented. Print, on the other hand, is surprisingly engaging and encourages readers to take deeper dives. They both have their place and, as media strategists, we have to make the right choices for our brands.


For example, I can’t imagine the brand launch of a new car design or Prada jeans without thoughtful print campaigns. Or products for babies without being in Parent magazine, where new moms and dads seek information-rich articles, photos and sidebars. For the same reasons, radio is intrinsically a good bet for fast-food restaurants, just as digital advertising is fabulous for reaching highly targeted segments at places in their lives where they are close to a purchase decision such as taking a trip to Europe, for example.


It’s more important than ever for marketers to get back to understanding what each media type can and can’t do. New media, without a doubt, is growing and important. But there is still a place in the media plan for traditional media.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


Overall, optimism is growing in the advertising industry. However, not all media are created equal in projections for U.S. advertising spending in 2010 and beyond. It remains a difficult time for print, while television seems to be holding its own. Digital advertising continues to grow, and may have even benefited from the recession.


(See related blog: Advertising Spending Looks Up in 2010.)


“The rise of the Internet continued uninterrupted during the downturn — in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” said ZenithOptimedia, in a press release forecasting ad spending for 2010 and beyond.


Television suffered less than other media, ZenithOptimedia noted, while “newspapers and magazines have clearly suffered the most from the downturn.”

Ad Predictions by Media Type

ZenithOptimedia predicts the following for 2010 global advertising spending by media:

• TV: Up 4.36 percent with 40.3 percent market share.
• Newspapers: Down 3.8 percent with 21.7 percent market share.
• Internet: Up 12.9 percent with 13.9 percent market share.
• Magazines: Down 4.4 percent with 9.6 percent market share.
• Radio: Down 0.5 percent with 7.5 percent market share.
• Outdoor: Up 1.72 percent with 6.5 percent market share.
• Cinema: Up 3.07 percent with 0.5 percent market share.

Communications firm Carat, as reported by MarketingProfs, expects the United States — in specific — to follow a similar ad-spending pattern:

• TV: Up 4 percent.
• Newspapers: Down 8.3 percent
• Online: Up 10 percent.
• Radio: Up 2.5 percent.
• Magazines: Down 5 percent.

Last, but not least, in its April revised forecast (via MediaBuyerPlanner), MAGNA raised its 2010 expectations, predicting a 3 percent rise in U.S. ad spending, including revenues from the Olympics and spending on elections, to 3 percent. This is MAGNA’s second correction of 2010, including a January forecast predicting flat growth for U.S. ad spending.


MAGNA’s U.S. outlook is bullish for the Internet and TV, but bearish for print:

• Search: Up 16.8 percent.
• Local TV: Up 16.2 percent.
• Internet: Up 12.8 percent.
• National TV: Up 10.2 percent.
• Magazines: Down 6.9 percent.
• Local Newspapers: Down 10 percent.
• National Newspapers: Down 11 percent.

Industry revenues will rise from $40.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009 to $41.3 billion during the first quarter of 2010, according to a MAGNA press release.


“Among the various sectors, television remains the largest advertising platform in the United States,” MAGNA said. “The $56.0 billion dollar segment will grow by 9.8% during 2010, slightly higher than our prior 8.5% expectation. This growth will erase 2009′s losses and return the sector to levels observed between 2006 and 2008.”

What Media Executives are Saying about the Future

Overall, ad spending is expected to grow an average of 3 percent in 2010, while interactive ad spending is expected to grow 10 percent, according to an AdMedia Partners online survey of global senior business executives in advertising, marketing services, digital marketing and related industries.


The majority of media executives (65 percent) said that online revenue will account for more than 50 percent of total revenue within the next five years at business-to-business publications. For newspapers, 44 percent said online revenue will outstrip print within five years and 38 percent said that it is likely to take 5-10 years.


Mobile and social media marketing are also projected to grow.


“These evolving media and service offerings are considered to be important growth opportunities increasingly requested by content owners and advertisers,” according to the AdMedia Partners report. “Just like the early days of the Internet, media companies are experimenting with various business models to monetize these opportunities.”


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


Finally, some good news on the advertising front. Recent forecasts indicate that advertising spending is climbing out of the recession hole.


(See related blog: Advertising’s Recovery: Not all Media Created Equal)


ZenithOptimedia recently upgraded its forecast for global ad growth in 2010 from 0.9 percent (estimated December 2009) to 2.2 percent (April 2010), the company said in a press release. After 18 months of consecutive downgrades, this is the global media services agency’s second upgrade in a row.


“Confidence in the global economic recovery, while tentative, continues to grow, and this improvement has been apparent in ad markets across the world,” ZenithOptimedia said. “Ad expenditure is accelerating in bullish developing markets, while in the developed world the downturn is coming to an end more quickly than expected.”

2010 Advertising Forecast: Partly Sunny

It’s a turnaround happily predicted by others in the advertising industry. Carat, as recently reported by the Guardian, also adjusted its outlook, predicting advertising to grow 2.9 percent this year, up from the 1 percent the company forecasted in October 2009.


Likewise, the results of a new AdMedia Partners survey indicates that worldwide senior business executives in the media business expect ad spending to grow 3 percent in 2010.


Finally, in MAGNA’s recent update, the company predicted that, excluding political and Olympic advertising on TV, “on a normalized bases the U.S. advertising economy will grow by 1.6 percent during 2010, ahead of our prior forecast of flat year-to-year growth.”


MAGNA’s long-term forecast is also rosier: “As expectations for the broader economy have improved over an extended time-frame as well, we are increasing our long-term forecasts, and now expect growth to average 3.5 percent between 2010 and 2015, up from +2.3 percent previously.”

Digital Advertising Leads the Charge

While traditional advertising media suffered the most from the global recession, digital advertising continued to grow and, “in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” according to ZenithOptimedia.


This was confirmed at a recent Ad Age Digital Conference in New York where corporate speakers agreed they were now spending a bigger portion of the advertising pie — 20 to 25 percent — on digital advertising.


“We expect 10.7 percent growth in online advertising revenues, led by 17.0 percent growth in paid search,” MAGNA said. “Much of this growth will be due to the increasing ease with which many advertisers — especially those who are endemic to the Internet as well as small and mid-sized companies — can accomplish their goals through digital media.”


In the AdMedia Partners online survey, more than three-fourths of media executives said they are considering the expansion of online services or are entering into new online marketing businesses, including:

• Social media marketing (55 percent).
• Mobile marketing (48 percent).
• Search marketing (41 percent).
• CRM/Analytics (41 percent).
• E-mail marketing (35 percent).

Media Spending Considerations

In the past, marketers have typically planned year-over-year advertising increases. However, the 2009 recession has changed that dramatically, with most brands putting cost-cutting measures into place. The forecasts mentioned above indicate that spending will rise again in 2010, albeit cautiously. And with increased demand on media inventory, we can expect to see increases in media pricing — dramatic increases, in some cases.


BrandCottage will continue to report on these trends as we move through 2010.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


We are very pleased to announce (see press release) that BrandCottage has teamed with The Farm, a creative advertising and production services agency, to launch a new USA TODAY campaign, What America Wants.

The campaign starts today and targets advertisers and media buyers — essentially people just like us. The campaign emphasizes USA TODAY’s continued leadership role and connection with its readers via print, USATODAY.com and on the iPhone.


By the way, if you haven’t seen USA TODAY’s mobile application, you really should. It’s impressive. It “share article” feature fluidly links with Twitter, Facebook, text and e-mail applications to enable the easy sharing of information with your communities.


The campaign is running print and online advertising in trades such as Mashable, Adage, Adweek, Brandweek, Mediaweek, TechCrunch and CNNMoney.com. Ads will also appear on television, on Facebook and LinkedIn, and on elevator screens.


Campaign components also include guerrilla marketing and social media tactics.


The multimedia world is rapidly changing and this is producing many opportunities for small, experienced agencies. What wins today are strong ideas, speed and flexibility. We are humbled to be part of the USA TODAY brand initiative.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.