By Patricia Wilson


Overall, optimism is growing in the advertising industry. However, not all media are created equal in projections for U.S. advertising spending in 2010 and beyond. It remains a difficult time for print, while television seems to be holding its own. Digital advertising continues to grow, and may have even benefited from the recession.


(See related blog: Advertising Spending Looks Up in 2010.)


“The rise of the Internet continued uninterrupted during the downturn — in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” said ZenithOptimedia, in a press release forecasting ad spending for 2010 and beyond.


Television suffered less than other media, ZenithOptimedia noted, while “newspapers and magazines have clearly suffered the most from the downturn.”

Ad Predictions by Media Type

ZenithOptimedia predicts the following for 2010 global advertising spending by media:

• TV: Up 4.36 percent with 40.3 percent market share.
• Newspapers: Down 3.8 percent with 21.7 percent market share.
• Internet: Up 12.9 percent with 13.9 percent market share.
• Magazines: Down 4.4 percent with 9.6 percent market share.
• Radio: Down 0.5 percent with 7.5 percent market share.
• Outdoor: Up 1.72 percent with 6.5 percent market share.
• Cinema: Up 3.07 percent with 0.5 percent market share.

Communications firm Carat, as reported by MarketingProfs, expects the United States — in specific — to follow a similar ad-spending pattern:

• TV: Up 4 percent.
• Newspapers: Down 8.3 percent
• Online: Up 10 percent.
• Radio: Up 2.5 percent.
• Magazines: Down 5 percent.

Last, but not least, in its April revised forecast (via MediaBuyerPlanner), MAGNA raised its 2010 expectations, predicting a 3 percent rise in U.S. ad spending, including revenues from the Olympics and spending on elections, to 3 percent. This is MAGNA’s second correction of 2010, including a January forecast predicting flat growth for U.S. ad spending.


MAGNA’s U.S. outlook is bullish for the Internet and TV, but bearish for print:

• Search: Up 16.8 percent.
• Local TV: Up 16.2 percent.
• Internet: Up 12.8 percent.
• National TV: Up 10.2 percent.
• Magazines: Down 6.9 percent.
• Local Newspapers: Down 10 percent.
• National Newspapers: Down 11 percent.

Industry revenues will rise from $40.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009 to $41.3 billion during the first quarter of 2010, according to a MAGNA press release.


“Among the various sectors, television remains the largest advertising platform in the United States,” MAGNA said. “The $56.0 billion dollar segment will grow by 9.8% during 2010, slightly higher than our prior 8.5% expectation. This growth will erase 2009′s losses and return the sector to levels observed between 2006 and 2008.”

What Media Executives are Saying about the Future

Overall, ad spending is expected to grow an average of 3 percent in 2010, while interactive ad spending is expected to grow 10 percent, according to an AdMedia Partners online survey of global senior business executives in advertising, marketing services, digital marketing and related industries.


The majority of media executives (65 percent) said that online revenue will account for more than 50 percent of total revenue within the next five years at business-to-business publications. For newspapers, 44 percent said online revenue will outstrip print within five years and 38 percent said that it is likely to take 5-10 years.


Mobile and social media marketing are also projected to grow.


“These evolving media and service offerings are considered to be important growth opportunities increasingly requested by content owners and advertisers,” according to the AdMedia Partners report. “Just like the early days of the Internet, media companies are experimenting with various business models to monetize these opportunities.”


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


Finally, some good news on the advertising front. Recent forecasts indicate that advertising spending is climbing out of the recession hole.


(See related blog: Advertising’s Recovery: Not all Media Created Equal)


ZenithOptimedia recently upgraded its forecast for global ad growth in 2010 from 0.9 percent (estimated December 2009) to 2.2 percent (April 2010), the company said in a press release. After 18 months of consecutive downgrades, this is the global media services agency’s second upgrade in a row.


“Confidence in the global economic recovery, while tentative, continues to grow, and this improvement has been apparent in ad markets across the world,” ZenithOptimedia said. “Ad expenditure is accelerating in bullish developing markets, while in the developed world the downturn is coming to an end more quickly than expected.”

2010 Advertising Forecast: Partly Sunny

It’s a turnaround happily predicted by others in the advertising industry. Carat, as recently reported by the Guardian, also adjusted its outlook, predicting advertising to grow 2.9 percent this year, up from the 1 percent the company forecasted in October 2009.


Likewise, the results of a new AdMedia Partners survey indicates that worldwide senior business executives in the media business expect ad spending to grow 3 percent in 2010.


Finally, in MAGNA’s recent update, the company predicted that, excluding political and Olympic advertising on TV, “on a normalized bases the U.S. advertising economy will grow by 1.6 percent during 2010, ahead of our prior forecast of flat year-to-year growth.”


MAGNA’s long-term forecast is also rosier: “As expectations for the broader economy have improved over an extended time-frame as well, we are increasing our long-term forecasts, and now expect growth to average 3.5 percent between 2010 and 2015, up from +2.3 percent previously.”

Digital Advertising Leads the Charge

While traditional advertising media suffered the most from the global recession, digital advertising continued to grow and, “in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” according to ZenithOptimedia.


This was confirmed at a recent Ad Age Digital Conference in New York where corporate speakers agreed they were now spending a bigger portion of the advertising pie — 20 to 25 percent — on digital advertising.


“We expect 10.7 percent growth in online advertising revenues, led by 17.0 percent growth in paid search,” MAGNA said. “Much of this growth will be due to the increasing ease with which many advertisers — especially those who are endemic to the Internet as well as small and mid-sized companies — can accomplish their goals through digital media.”


In the AdMedia Partners online survey, more than three-fourths of media executives said they are considering the expansion of online services or are entering into new online marketing businesses, including:

• Social media marketing (55 percent).
• Mobile marketing (48 percent).
• Search marketing (41 percent).
• CRM/Analytics (41 percent).
• E-mail marketing (35 percent).

Media Spending Considerations

In the past, marketers have typically planned year-over-year advertising increases. However, the 2009 recession has changed that dramatically, with most brands putting cost-cutting measures into place. The forecasts mentioned above indicate that spending will rise again in 2010, albeit cautiously. And with increased demand on media inventory, we can expect to see increases in media pricing — dramatic increases, in some cases.


BrandCottage will continue to report on these trends as we move through 2010.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


We are very pleased to announce (see press release) that BrandCottage has teamed with The Farm, a creative advertising and production services agency, to launch a new USA TODAY campaign, What America Wants.

The campaign starts today and targets advertisers and media buyers — essentially people just like us. The campaign emphasizes USA TODAY’s continued leadership role and connection with its readers via print, USATODAY.com and on the iPhone.


By the way, if you haven’t seen USA TODAY’s mobile application, you really should. It’s impressive. It “share article” feature fluidly links with Twitter, Facebook, text and e-mail applications to enable the easy sharing of information with your communities.


The campaign is running print and online advertising in trades such as Mashable, Adage, Adweek, Brandweek, Mediaweek, TechCrunch and CNNMoney.com. Ads will also appear on television, on Facebook and LinkedIn, and on elevator screens.


Campaign components also include guerrilla marketing and social media tactics.


The multimedia world is rapidly changing and this is producing many opportunities for small, experienced agencies. What wins today are strong ideas, speed and flexibility. We are humbled to be part of the USA TODAY brand initiative.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


It’s about time! This month, five major magazine heavyweights announced they will join forces to collectively “promote the vitality of magazines as a medium.” The Power of Print campaign — targeting advertisers, media buyers and other industry marketing influencers — will roll out in April.


The five magazine companies — Condé Nast, Hearst Magazines, Meredith Corporation, Time Inc. and Wenner Media — claim this is “one of the largest print advertising campaigns ever created” in support of magazine advertising.


With the support of the Magazine Publishers of America (MPA), the campaign is scheduled for seven months, will include nearly 100 titles (both print and online) for a combined reach of 112 million readers each month.


One of my favorite advertising headlines from the campaign:“Will the Internet Kill Magazines? Did Instant Coffee Kill Coffee?”


As a 20-year veteran of media planning, I can tell you that print still matters in the advertising mix. Digital is the new kid in town and it’s gotten a fair amount of advertising attention over the last couple of years. However, finally, publishers and advertisers see a clear reader pattern — or lack of pattern, if you will — that’s emerging. Readers want choice. That includes print, digital, mobile, iPad and whatever else may come down the pike.

The benefits of magazine print: the intrinsic value of the glossy format, quality design, long-form journalism, beautiful photography and highly engaged readers.

Citing third-party data, the Magazine Publishers of America reports a healthy consumer outlook for magazines, compared to other media. Tops on its  highlight list is the fact that magazine readership has increased over the last five years. Yes, there has been a shift in readership and advertising to online. Despite the “Magazines Hemorrhage Cash” strories, more than 90 percent of Americans say they read magazines.

Print Versus Online Advertising

Magazine print continues to provide many advertising strengths: the intrinsic value of the glossy format, quality design, long-form journalism, beautiful photography and highly engaged readers. Of course, digital has its own set of intrinsic strengths: e-commerce, clickability, interactivity and trackability — to name a few.


Apple, for example, one of the most iconic brands in the world, fully understands the power of print. Even though Apple, itself, is a digital company. Magazines, for Apple, remain a cornerstone for their branding initiatives and product launches. This is true for many other top brands, as well.

Multimedia Integration

The lesson here, for marketers, is to look beyond the hype of digital to achieve desired results. All media can be valuable. Not all media can achieve all goals. Seasoned marketers understand that. In today’s multimedia world, integrated plans often work best — allowing advertisers to account for different readership styles, preferences and needs for various degrees of engagement levels.


Kudos to the magazine publishers for standing up for print and putting the facts out there. Magazine publishers, of course, have been wise to address the digital shift: adding multi-platform options, social engagement and integration strategies to the mix. But this is no reason to throw magazine print properties under the bus.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


For online advertising providers, the honeymoon is finally over.


As a seasoned media planner, I was not surprised by a recent report designed to provide much needed damage control for the under-performing online advertising industry. The document, from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and Bain & Company, highlights the many online advertising challenges being fac

ed by marketers. More importantly, the report, Building Brands Online: An Interactive Advertising Action Plan, attempts to provide a road map to improve the industry’s growing negative perceptions about the brand-building value of online advertising.

The IAB/Bain report is a much needed response to last year’s findings that online advertising inventory is highly undervalued by brand

marketers. At the heart of the problem, according to an Online Media Daily story:

. . . online sales organizations have lacked the sophistication necessary to turn the perceptions advertisers and agencies have about the value of online advertising . . .

The report also identifies five key obstacles that have kept marketers from shifting more of their budgets online:

• Online ad formats and creative have not evolved to meet marketers’ needs.
• Media companies lack category expertise when they sell to brand marketers and engage with them too late in the media planning process.
• Marketers want integrated campaigns instead of platform-specific media programs.
• While marketers see high value in online advertising and believe that it could be effective at all stages of the purchase funnel, current industry practices inhibit greater investment of brand ad dollars.
• Marketers express needs for differentiated services for their brands and believe that media companies and agencies have to meet those differentiated needs for online advertising to grow.

Measurement Intoxication

What I find most interesting is that the once-mighty “click” measurement is now out of favor, having underperformed miserably and showing no signs of being resurrected.


“Ultimately, marketers are looking for media companies to offer a true triple-play service model from direct response to awareness to high impact brand engagement,” said John Frelinghuysen in a press release. Frelinghuysen is a partner in Bain & Company’s media practice and lead author of the study.


As a classically trained media planner, I place a high value on measurability. However, just as with traditional media, we must be careful not to chase what we can measure – what fits under the microscope and what shows some ROI – just so we can rattle back some good news to CMOs and CFOs. Click rates, foe example, may NOT really be a true indication of what’s driving the Brand long term. We must avoid becoming over-intoxicated on the wrong digital measurements.


Despite all the Technorati talk of measurement over the past few years, it appears online advertising has come full circle. It is now faced with the exact same question we’ve always asked about media, including the traditional television, print, radio and outdoor channels: How do we best measure online advertising’s full impact on our brand?


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.