By Patricia Wilson


Overall, optimism is growing in the advertising industry. However, not all media are created equal in projections for U.S. advertising spending in 2010 and beyond. It remains a difficult time for print, while television seems to be holding its own. Digital advertising continues to grow, and may have even benefited from the recession.


(See related blog: Advertising Spending Looks Up in 2010.)


“The rise of the Internet continued uninterrupted during the downturn — in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” said ZenithOptimedia, in a press release forecasting ad spending for 2010 and beyond.


Television suffered less than other media, ZenithOptimedia noted, while “newspapers and magazines have clearly suffered the most from the downturn.”

Ad Predictions by Media Type

ZenithOptimedia predicts the following for 2010 global advertising spending by media:

• TV: Up 4.36 percent with 40.3 percent market share.
• Newspapers: Down 3.8 percent with 21.7 percent market share.
• Internet: Up 12.9 percent with 13.9 percent market share.
• Magazines: Down 4.4 percent with 9.6 percent market share.
• Radio: Down 0.5 percent with 7.5 percent market share.
• Outdoor: Up 1.72 percent with 6.5 percent market share.
• Cinema: Up 3.07 percent with 0.5 percent market share.

Communications firm Carat, as reported by MarketingProfs, expects the United States — in specific — to follow a similar ad-spending pattern:

• TV: Up 4 percent.
• Newspapers: Down 8.3 percent
• Online: Up 10 percent.
• Radio: Up 2.5 percent.
• Magazines: Down 5 percent.

Last, but not least, in its April revised forecast (via MediaBuyerPlanner), MAGNA raised its 2010 expectations, predicting a 3 percent rise in U.S. ad spending, including revenues from the Olympics and spending on elections, to 3 percent. This is MAGNA’s second correction of 2010, including a January forecast predicting flat growth for U.S. ad spending.


MAGNA’s U.S. outlook is bullish for the Internet and TV, but bearish for print:

• Search: Up 16.8 percent.
• Local TV: Up 16.2 percent.
• Internet: Up 12.8 percent.
• National TV: Up 10.2 percent.
• Magazines: Down 6.9 percent.
• Local Newspapers: Down 10 percent.
• National Newspapers: Down 11 percent.

Industry revenues will rise from $40.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009 to $41.3 billion during the first quarter of 2010, according to a MAGNA press release.


“Among the various sectors, television remains the largest advertising platform in the United States,” MAGNA said. “The $56.0 billion dollar segment will grow by 9.8% during 2010, slightly higher than our prior 8.5% expectation. This growth will erase 2009’s losses and return the sector to levels observed between 2006 and 2008.”

What Media Executives are Saying about the Future

Overall, ad spending is expected to grow an average of 3 percent in 2010, while interactive ad spending is expected to grow 10 percent, according to an AdMedia Partners online survey of global senior business executives in advertising, marketing services, digital marketing and related industries.


The majority of media executives (65 percent) said that online revenue will account for more than 50 percent of total revenue within the next five years at business-to-business publications. For newspapers, 44 percent said online revenue will outstrip print within five years and 38 percent said that it is likely to take 5-10 years.


Mobile and social media marketing are also projected to grow.


“These evolving media and service offerings are considered to be important growth opportunities increasingly requested by content owners and advertisers,” according to the AdMedia Partners report. “Just like the early days of the Internet, media companies are experimenting with various business models to monetize these opportunities.”


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

By Patricia Wilson


Finally, some good news on the advertising front. Recent forecasts indicate that advertising spending is climbing out of the recession hole.


(See related blog: Advertising’s Recovery: Not all Media Created Equal)


ZenithOptimedia recently upgraded its forecast for global ad growth in 2010 from 0.9 percent (estimated December 2009) to 2.2 percent (April 2010), the company said in a press release. After 18 months of consecutive downgrades, this is the global media services agency’s second upgrade in a row.


“Confidence in the global economic recovery, while tentative, continues to grow, and this improvement has been apparent in ad markets across the world,” ZenithOptimedia said. “Ad expenditure is accelerating in bullish developing markets, while in the developed world the downturn is coming to an end more quickly than expected.”

2010 Advertising Forecast: Partly Sunny

It’s a turnaround happily predicted by others in the advertising industry. Carat, as recently reported by the Guardian, also adjusted its outlook, predicting advertising to grow 2.9 percent this year, up from the 1 percent the company forecasted in October 2009.


Likewise, the results of a new AdMedia Partners survey indicates that worldwide senior business executives in the media business expect ad spending to grow 3 percent in 2010.


Finally, in MAGNA’s recent update, the company predicted that, excluding political and Olympic advertising on TV, “on a normalized bases the U.S. advertising economy will grow by 1.6 percent during 2010, ahead of our prior forecast of flat year-to-year growth.”


MAGNA’s long-term forecast is also rosier: “As expectations for the broader economy have improved over an extended time-frame as well, we are increasing our long-term forecasts, and now expect growth to average 3.5 percent between 2010 and 2015, up from +2.3 percent previously.”

Digital Advertising Leads the Charge

While traditional advertising media suffered the most from the global recession, digital advertising continued to grow and, “in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” according to ZenithOptimedia.


This was confirmed at a recent Ad Age Digital Conference in New York where corporate speakers agreed they were now spending a bigger portion of the advertising pie — 20 to 25 percent — on digital advertising.


“We expect 10.7 percent growth in online advertising revenues, led by 17.0 percent growth in paid search,” MAGNA said. “Much of this growth will be due to the increasing ease with which many advertisers — especially those who are endemic to the Internet as well as small and mid-sized companies — can accomplish their goals through digital media.”


In the AdMedia Partners online survey, more than three-fourths of media executives said they are considering the expansion of online services or are entering into new online marketing businesses, including:

• Social media marketing (55 percent).
• Mobile marketing (48 percent).
• Search marketing (41 percent).
• CRM/Analytics (41 percent).
• E-mail marketing (35 percent).

Media Spending Considerations

In the past, marketers have typically planned year-over-year advertising increases. However, the 2009 recession has changed that dramatically, with most brands putting cost-cutting measures into place. The forecasts mentioned above indicate that spending will rise again in 2010, albeit cautiously. And with increased demand on media inventory, we can expect to see increases in media pricing — dramatic increases, in some cases.


BrandCottage will continue to report on these trends as we move through 2010.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.